In this report we briefly review Opendoor’s 2Q results/3Q guidance and introduce our new quarterly revenue tracker which measures OPEN’s progress against quarterly targets based on Parcl Labs data.

2Q Results - Mostly better than consensus

Opendoor ($OPEN) released its 2Q earnings last week and held its quarterly conference call to discuss results and their 3Q outlook. Generally speaking, 2Q was in-line to slightly above expectations on most metrics including revenue, homes sold, homes purchased and EBITDA. Their average revenue per home sold was about 4% below expectations suggesting they are taking more price than expected. They noted that unfavorable mix in terms of older inventory is impacting their contribution margins.

Outlook substantially worse than expected on weak macro backdrop

OPEN’s 3Q outlook was dismal as the company guided 3Q revenue 30% below consensus expectations. Further, 4Q is expected to be just as bad from a sequential (quarter over quarter) perspective. Commentary from the call suggests that the macro environment with respect to housing deteriorated meaningfully from the start of 2Q - we think the typically strong Spring selling season failed to materialize at all per our data. The company noted the housing market is very challenging and transaction volume in the second half of the year will be lower, and spreads will remain wide. That said, management did say that macro seems to have stabilized at this lower level, which may suggest that they’ve guided conservatively enough should current conditions sustain through year end.

NEW: Quarterly Revenue Tracker — 5% Ahead of Pace for 3Q25

The mid-point of OPEN’s 3Q25 revenue guidance is $837.5M. Based on our data, we’ve tracked 1,133 total sales in the quarter thus far, at a average sale price of $367,000, implying revenue of $416.1M. Proportionally, based on where we are in the quarter, revenue should be $396.2M and as such, the company is currently tracking 5% ahead of target. If the current pace were to sustain, OPEN would post 3Q revenue of $880M (5% above guidance).

We will periodically write on this topic; however, our $OPEN Tracker will update daily and will be available to subscribers. Enhanced OPEN listing and pricing data can be found in our API.

Methodology note: Bulk portfolio transfers are frequently overstated in standard public-record datasets. Many counties copy the total deal value to each property, so a $15M purchase of 30 homes can appear as 30 separate $15M sales in conventional sources. We detect these cases, consolidate them into a single portfolio transaction, and maintain a separate ledger of portfolio flows. This removes inflated unit-level revenue and surfaces portfolio activity as an early signal on Opendoor’s institutional channels and relationships, including flows to large SFR operators such as Invitation Homes. Learn more about our institutional SFR data here.