Parcl Labs Initiates Market Ratings: Most Top Markets Projected Flat or Down

Executive Summary

The latest Parcl Labs Housing Intelligence Reports are now live.

In this release, we're initiating coverage on 40 major markets with our new Market Ratings and Home Price Forecasts. Each market now receives a forward-looking rating (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) based on one-year price forecasts.

What do these ratings reveal? A key theme: divergence. 17 of 40 markets are currently rated Bullish, projecting home prices will rise 3% or more in the next year, some as high as 8–10%. However, a majority (23 markets) are rated Neutral or Bearish, indicating flat or declining prices ahead, some by double-digit percentages.

These ratings are not evenly spread throughout the country:

• The Sunbelt has become the epicenter of housing stress, accounting for 10 of our 12 Bearish markets. These markets have reversed sharply from pandemic-era highs, now facing rising inventory, falling sales, and widespread price cuts.
• The Midwest and Northeast dominate our Bullish ratings (10 of 17), driven by tight inventory, strong buyer demand, and sustained price growth.

Even within markets rated bullish or bearish, the outlook varies significantly by submarket. That’s why we’ve doubled down on hyperlocal insights, launching 800+ Real-Time Submarket Price Feeds. Uncover opportunity and risk with granular price trends at the ZIP code and county level in major metros.

Each Housing Intelligence Report now includes:

• A Market Rating
• Home Price Forecasts
• Real-time Submarket Price Feeds
• Updated data powering the key features from our April release: real-time market trends, submarket single-family rental analytics, and AI-driven buy box analysis.

Keep reading for our top insights from this release, or if you’re ready to unlock institutional-grade housing intelligence immediately:

Access your market’s report here.

Parcl Labs Initiates Market Ratings: Majority of Major Markets Projected Flat or Declining Next Year

What's the current state of US housing?

Nationally, our latest research shows home prices essentially frozen, up just 0.4% year-over-year. But beneath this stability, cracks are emerging: rising inventory and softening demand are widening the supply-demand gap, putting stress on many markets. A key indicator of this stress is price cuts, now impacting more than one-third of all U.S. listings.

However, national averages mask regional divergence. At Parcl Labs, our mission is to arm you with real-time, actionable intelligence to identify and act on these market variations. That’s why this month we’re introducing our Market Ratings: a clear, powerful new way to track housing market performance and outlook.

Our ratings leverage newly launched home price forecasts to categorize markets:

• BULLISH: 17 markets – Forecasted price growth of 3% or higher, signaling clear upward momentum.
• NEUTRAL: 11 markets – Forecasted price growth between 0% and 3%, indicating flat or modest growth.
• BEARISH: 12 markets – Forecasted price declines (negative growth), signaling expected downturns.

In addition to a market rating and one-year price forecast, each report provides detailed Bull and Bear scenarios, highlighting the upper and lower bounds of our forecasts.

How does your market stand today? With forecasts ranging from double-digit gains to dramatic declines, knowing your market’s trajectory has never been more critical. See your market’s rating now and explore the report to understand exactly what's driving these projections.

Here's what caught our research team's attention in the latest Housing Intelligence Reports:

Sunbelt Reckoning Continues: 10 of 12 Bearish markets in the Sunbelt

Just a few years ago, Sunbelt markets were red hot, fueled by pandemic-driven demand. Today, these same markets lead the nation in housing stress, accounting for 10 of our 12 Bearish market ratings.

Three key trends define the Sunbelt’s reversal: surging inventory, falling absorption rates, and widespread price cuts. Metros like Tampa and Phoenix face significant inventory surpluses compared to last year. Absorption rates have plummeted, markets like Austin and North Port now sell fewer than one-third of available homes monthly, well below historical norms. Price reductions have become pervasive, with over half of listings cutting prices in severely impacted markets like Cape Coral, the national leader in price-cut activity.

Several Sunbelt markets have already seen price declines, and our forecasts indicate further pain ahead. Multiple metros could experience over 10% price drops extending into 2025.

Which markets are most at risk, and how severe could it get?

Access the reports to find out.

Northeast Strength and Midwest Momentum: 10 of 17 Bullish ratings in these Regions

While the Sunbelt struggles, the Midwest and Northeast remain strong, home to 10 of our 17 Bullish markets. Key drivers include tight inventory, robust buyer demand, and sustained price growth.

Major metros like Boston, Chicago, and New York stand out, along with secondary market outperformers such as Buffalo, Cleveland, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee.

Common factors fueling this strength include limited inventory, driven by sharp declines in new listings in markets like Pittsburgh and Columbus. Exceptionally high absorption rates in Cleveland, Chicago, and Milwaukee indicate continued strong demand, and price cuts remain notably rare, signaling seller confidence.

However, questions remain about sustainability. While our forecasts project continued momentum, rapid price appreciation, particularly in secondary markets, could soon strain local affordability. Early signs of rising inventory could also signal shifts ahead and potentially moderate price gains. Additional macroeconomic instability may also create headwinds for these markets.

Will affordability or rising inventory reshape these bullish trajectories?

Access the full reports to explore the complete outlook.

Hyperlocal Insights: Go Deeper with Real-Time Submarket Price Feeds

The national and regional trends above highlight just a few of our research team’s insights. But across the 40 markets we cover—and especially within individual submarkets and property segments—conditions can vary dramatically.

You told us hyperlocal insights were among the most valuable features of our initial Housing Intelligence Reports. Metro-level analysis sets the stage, but real opportunities and risks emerge at the submarket level.

Based on your feedback, we’ve doubled down with Real-Time Submarket Price Feeds, providing clear, actionable trends at an even greater granularity.

Why does this matter? Consider Miami, a metro currently rated Bullish, with home prices currently up 2.5% year-over-year. Even within this bullish market, submarket performance differs significantly:

33411 (West Palm Beach), north of Miami proper, underperforms the metro with home prices up less than 1% year-over-year.

33177 (South Miami Heights), in southwest Miami, is thriving. Prices are up 10% year-over-year and an impressive 400% since 2010 (compared to 205% metro-wide).

Access Your Market Report in One Click

Every Parcl Labs Housing Intelligence Report now includes powerful new features: Market Ratings, Home Price Forecasts, and Real-Time Submarket Price Feeds. These new tools build on existing strengths like real-time market data, submarket single-family rental analytics, and AI-powered buy box insights. Each report now delivers more actionable housing intelligence than ever.

Ready to unlock these institutional-grade insights? Historically, accessing research of this caliber required expensive subscriptions and lengthy sales processes.

We’ve eliminated those barriers. No sales calls, no steep fees, no waiting. Parcl Labs Housing Intelligence Reports are fully self-service, transparently priced, and available right now.

Access your market report now.

There’s never been a better time to join the Lab.