June 26, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for April

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with April numbers on June 27th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal increases in all markets but one Las Vegas with a 0.6% contraction.
  • In April, Chicago experienced the highest increase in real estate prices at 2.2%, followed by Los Angeles at 2.0%, Boston and Washington DC at 1.8% each, Miami at 1.4%, and San Diego at 1.0%.
  • In April, Denver, New York, and San Francisco exhibited more stable real estate markets with modest increases of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively in the Case Shiller index.
  • The Case Shiller index is now capturing the increase in the Spring housing market, reflecting the uptick across various markets that our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has been documenting for months. As of June 26, our Parcl Labs Price Feed shows increases across all markets, ranging from 1.5 to 8.2 percent.
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, June 27 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with April numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for April (scheduled to be reported on June 27). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

April Case Shiller Market Highlights

Rising April Markets

  • Chicago: real estate prices up 2.2%
  • Los Angeles: real estate prices up 2.0%
  • Boston: real estate prices up 1.8%
  • Washington DC: real estate prices up 1.8%
  • Miami: real estate prices up 1.4%
  • San Diego: real estate prices up 1.0%

Stable April Markets

  • New York: real estate prices up 0.6%
  • San Francisco: real estate prices up 0.6%
  • Denver: real estate prices up 0.3%

Declining April Markets

  • Las Vegas real estate prices down -0.6%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported on new data since March. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from June 26, 2023 we see that all CS-10 metro areas are up between 1.5 to 8.2 percent since the last Case Shiller report (March 2023).

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for April

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our April estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs March Prediction Performance

  • Directionally consistent in 8/10 markets
  • W/in 1% in 8/10 markets
  • SD and SF were only markets with a deviation greater than 1%
  • Overall error 1.03% (up 16 basis points MoM)
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