October 29, 2023

7 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for August

August Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with August numbers on October 31st.
  • Overall August Market Performance: In August 2023, we anticipate that majority of the markets showed positive growth, with the notable exception of San Diego and Denver, which remained stable.
  • Rising Leaders: The Los Angeles market experienced the most significant growth, with a predicted increase of 3.3% in August. This is followed closely by the New York market at 2.0% and the Miami market at 1.7%.
  • Modest Gains: Markets such as San Francisco, Las Vegas, Boston, and Chicago showed growth of 1.1%, 1.2%, 1.3%, and 1.4% respectively.
  • Stable Performers: Washington DC, San Diego, and Denver stand out as the only markets that showed little to no price changes in August, remaining consistent with their July figures.
  • Since the July 2023 Case-Shiller update, our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has tracked pronounced market shifts this fall. Denver led with a strong 5.02% increase, trailed by New York's notable 3.51% rise. On the flip side, Boston and Washington, DC faced marked declines of -3.43% and -2.58%, respectively.
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market increasing 1.4% since July, the last time the CS National Home Price Index was updated.
  • In a dynamic market, waiting on Case-Shiller's 2+ month delayed updates can prove costly. Reach out to our team now for immediate access to current real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, October 31st at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with August numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for August. This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

August Case Shiller Market Highlights

August 2023 Positive Markets

  • Los Angeles: 3.3%
  • New York: 2.0%
  • Miami: 1.7%
  • Chicago: 1.4%
  • Boston: 1.3%
  • Las Vegas: 1.2%
  • San Francisco: 1.1%

August 2023 Stable Markets

  • Washington, DC: 0.1%
  • San Diego: 0.0%
  • Denver: 0.0%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t updated its data since July. Much has transpired since then. Reviewing the data from October 28, 2023, reveals that four markets have experienced a decline (Washington, DC -2.58%, Boston -3.43%, San Francisco -1.07%, Chicago -0.66%). All other CS-10 markets have shown growth, with Denver leading at an impressive increase of over 5% since July.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.974.

As of October 28th, the US housing market is up 1.4% since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in July.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for August

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our August estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs July Prediction Performance

  • We achieved under 1% error in 10/10 markets.
  • We recorded under 50 basis points error in 7/10 markets.
  • Our predictions were directionally consistent in 9/10 markets.
  • The overall error stood at 0.347%.
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