February 23, 2024

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for December

December Results

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with December numbers on February 27th.

Overall December Market Performance: For December 2023, we anticipate mixed movements in the Case-Shiller numbers, with four markets rising and six declining. Our market predictions are as follows:

  • Biggest Decliners: Boston, Los Angeles, New York, and Washington DC are the top decliners, with drops of 1.3%, 1.1%, 1.0%, and 1.0%, respectively.
  • Biggest Winner: San Francisco records a gain of 1.2%.
  • Stable Performers: Denver, San Diego, and Las Vegas exhibit modest growth at 0.6%, while Miami and Chicago see slight declines.

Despite the Case Shiller Index remaining static since November 2023, Parcl Labs Price Feed data as of February 23, 2024, reveals dynamic market movements: five markets declined, three appreciated, and two remained stable. San Francisco led the downturns with a -9.55% drop, while Miami's market is up by 1.91%.

Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market down 1.25% since the last CS reading in November.

In a dynamic market, waiting on Case-Shiller's 2+ month delayed updates can prove costly. Tap into our API for immediate access to current real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, February 27th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with December numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for December. This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

December Case Shiller Market Highlights

December 2023 Positive Markets

  • San Francisco (1.2%)
  • Denver (0.6%)
  • San Diego (0.6%)
  • Las Vegas (0.6%)

December 2023 Declining Markets

  • Boston (-1.3%)
  • Los Angeles (-1.1%)
  • New York (-1.0%)
  • Washington, DC (-1.0%)
  • Miami (-0.4%)
  • Chicago (-0.3%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index, static since November 2023, contrasts with dynamic market movements we've recorded in the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of February 23, 2024: five markets have declined, three have appreciated, and two have held steady.

San Francisco's steep -9.55% drop leads the downturns, followed by Los Angeles and Boston, down by -1.83% and -1.82%, with Chicago and Las Vegas also declining. In contrast, Miami's market surged by 1.91%. Washington, DC, Denver, and San Diego remained stable or grew slightly, with Washington, DC's market leading at 0.71%, and New York posted a modest 0.25% gain, reflecting a period of significant market variance.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market down 1.25% since the last CS reading in November.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for December

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our December estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs November Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our November predictions:

  • Within 10 basis points in 4 of 10 markets
  • Within 50 basis points in 7 of 10 markets
  • Within 100 basis points in 9 of 10 markets
  • Average error: 60 basis points
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