April 24, 2023

6 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for February

February Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with February numbers on April 25th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal a steady February increase in real estate prices in four markets, with Boston leading the way at 1.9%, followed by Los Angeles at 1%, San Diego at 0.9%, and Washington DC at 0.6%.
  • Miami and Chicago markets display relative stability, with Miami real estate prices experiencing a marginal increase of 0.2%, while Chicago saw a slight decrease of 0.1%.
  • Several markets exhibit declining trends, with Las Vegas experiencing the largest drop of 2.1%, followed by Denver at 1.5%, New York at 0.7%, and San Francisco at 0.5%.
  • The Case-Shiller index's inherent lag in reflecting market changes is evident when considering the recent Parcl Labs Price Feed data from April 23, 2023, which shows all CS-10 metro areas experiencing gains between ~1-12% since January, highlighting the discrepancy in capturing real-time market shifts.
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, April 25 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with February numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for February (scheduled to be reported on April 25th). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile periods real estate has ever experienced.

February Case Shiller Market Highlights

Rising February Markets

  • Boston real estate prices up 1.9%
  • Los Angeles real estate prices up 1%
  • San Diego real estate prices up .9%
  • Washington DC real estate prices up .6%

Stable February Markets

  • Miami real estate prices up .2%
  • Chicago real estate prices down .1%

Declining February Markets

  • Las Vegas real estate prices down 2.1%
  • Denver real estate prices down 1.5%
  • New York real estate prices down .7%
  • San Fransisco real estate prices down .5%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported since January. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from April 23, 2023 we see that all CS-10 metro areas are up between ~1-12% since January.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for February

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our February estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs January Prediction Performance

  • Parcl Labs predictions were directionally consistent for 5/10 markets.
  • Within 75 basis points for 4/10 markets
  • Missed by 1-2.68% for 6/10 markets
  • Overall error: 1.14%
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