March 27, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for January

January Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with January numbers on Tuesday, March 28th.
  • Parcl Labs forecasted January updates based on CS10 methodology and we expect continued price declines in 6 of 10 markets, with flattening out or slight recovery in 4/10 markets.
  • We predict Las Vegas and Washington, DC to show the most positive change MoM at 0.5%.  We expect San Diego to record a significant MoM decline at -3.1%.
  • Miami, Boston, and New York will see a price declines greater than or equal to 1%
  • Real estate prices are increasingly volatile and dynamic based on local market factors. Parcl Labs provides data and analysis you can trust - our December Predictions were directionally consistent for 8/10 markets and within 50 basis points for 4 markets.
  • Since the last time the Case Shiller reported in December of last year, all Case Shiller 10 markets are up ~2-6% as of 3/26/2023.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, March 28 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with January numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for January (scheduled to be reported on March 28th). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile periods real estate has ever experienced.

January Case Shiller Market Highlights

Stabilizing January Markets

  • Chicago up 0.2%
  • Las Vegas up 0.5%
  • San Francisco up 0.1%
  • Washington, DC up 0.5%

Declining January Markets

  • Boston down 1%
  • Denver down 1.1%
  • Los Angeles down 0.6%
  • Miami down 1%
  • New York down 1.6%
  • San Diego down 3.1%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported since December of last year. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from March 26, 2023 we see that all CS-10 metro areas are up between ~2-6%.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for January

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our January estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs December Prediction Performance

  • Parcl Labs predictions were directionally consistent for 8/10 markets.
  • Within 50 basis points for 4/10 markets
  • Missed by 1-2.4% for 5/10 markets
  • Overall error: 1.01%
Subscribe to our newsletter
Read about our privacy policy.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Share this post