March 22, 2024

5 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for January 2024

January Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with January numbers on March 26th.
  • Overall January Market Performance: January 2024's Case-Shiller forecast indicates a predominantly downward trend, with Los Angeles (0.9%) and Las Vegas (0.4%) as the sole risers amidst eight falling markets.
    • Biggest Decliners: San Diego leads with a -2.1% drop, Miami follows at -1.0%, with San Francisco (-0.7%), and Washington, DC (-0.6%) also declining.
    • Notable Gains: Los Angeles bucks the trend with a 0.9% increase.
    • Minor Adjustments: Las Vegas sees modest growth; other markets, including New York, Denver, Boston, and Chicago, face slight decreases between -0.3% and -0.5%.
  • Despite a static Case Shiller Index since December 2023, Parcl Labs Price Feed as of March 2024 highlights dynamic market movements: seven markets appreciated, two declined, and one held steady. Washington, DC spearheaded the growth with a notable 6.28% increase, contrasting with Chicago's decline of 0.86%.
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market up 2.03% since the last CS reading in December.
  • In a fast-moving market, relying on Case-Shiller's updates—which lag by over two months—can be costly. Sign up today for access to real-time real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, March 26th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with January numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for January. This report analyzes the single-family home market by focusing on repeated sales price trends and dynamics.

January Case Shiller Market Highlights

January 2024 Positive Markets

  • Los Angeles (0.9%)
  • Las Vegas (0.4%)

January 2024 Declining Markets

  • San Diego (-2.1%)
  • Miami (-1.0%)
  • San Francisco (-0.7%)
  • Washington, DC (-0.6%)
  • Chicago (-0.5%)
  • Boston (-0.4%)
  • Denver (-0.4%)
  • New York (-0.3%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index's latest figures, static since December 2023, are markedly different from the live market changes captured by the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of March 2024. This month, our data shows a positive trend: seven markets have appreciated, with only two declining and one remaining stable.

The most significant rise was observed in Washington, DC, with an impressive 6.28% increase, far outpacing the other markets. Notably, Miami and San Diego also demonstrated growth, with advances of 3.31% and 3.61%, respectively. Moderate upticks were seen in Denver, Boston, New York, and Los Angeles, with increases ranging from 0.75% to 2.55%. In contrast, Chicago faced a decline of 0.86%, while San Francisco experienced a marginal dip of 0.32%. Las Vegas's market performance held steady (0.35%).

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market is up 2.03 percent since the last CS reading in December.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for January

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our January estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs December Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our December predictions:

  • 6/10 markets within 100 basis pts
  • 3/10 markets within 50 basis pts
  • 1 market within 7 basis pts
  • Error: 93 basis pts
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