September 24, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for July

July Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with July numbers on September 26th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal increases in 9/10 markets, with San Francisco being the only market slightly down
  • Miami is expected to lead with a 1.6% increase, followed by Las Vegas at 1.4%, Chicago at 1.2%, and Washington, DC with a 1.1% rise
  • Boston, Denver, LA, New York, San Diego all have subtle gains around 1%
  • The Case-Shiller index reflects the upticks across various markets, something our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has been documenting for months. Since the last Case-Shiller update in June 2023, our Parcl Labs Price Feed has shown several markets starting to decline over the remainder of the summer including San Francisco (-3.79%), Boston (-1.4%), Washington, DC (-1.22%) and Chicago (-0.8%)
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market increasing 2.7% since June, the last time the CS National Home Price Index was updated
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through the Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, September 26th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with July numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for July (scheduled to be reported on September 26). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

July Case Shiller Market Highlights

Outperforming July Markets

  • Miami: 1.6%
  • Las Vegas: 1.6%
  • Chicago: 1.2%
  • Washington, DC: 1.1%

Underperforming June Markets

  • San Francisco: -0.3%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported on new data since June. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from September 22, 2023 we see that there are 4 markets that have declined (San Francisco -3.79%, Boston -1.4%, DC -1.2%, Chicago -0.8%). All other CS-10 markets are up, with Denver leading the pack up over 6% since June.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.972.

As of September 22, the US housing market is up 2.7% since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in June.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for July

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our July estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs June Prediction Performance

  • Directionally consistent in 10/10 markets
  • Within 1% in 8/10 markets
  • Overall error 0.76% (down 14 basis points MoM)
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