August 28, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for June

June Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with June numbers on August 29th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal increases in 10/10 markets, ranging from +0.2% to +2.2%
  • Miami is expected to lead with a 2.2% increase, followed by San Francisco at 1.9%, Chicago at 1.8%, and Denver with a 1.5% rise
  • Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and New York are flat MoM
  • The Case-Shiller index reflects the upticks across various markets, something our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has been documenting for months. Since the last Case-Shiller update in May 2023, our Parcl Labs Price Feed has shown several markets starting to decline over the summer months including New York and San Francisco.
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market increasing 5.9% since May, the last time the CS National Home Price Index was updated
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, August 29th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with June numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for June (scheduled to be reported on August 29). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

June Case Shiller Market Highlights

Outperforming June Markets

  • Miami: 2.2%
  • San Francisco: 1.9%
  • Chicago: 1.8%
  • Denver: 1.5%
  • Washington, DC: 1.4%

Underperforming June Markets

  • New York: 0.4%
  • Las Vegas: 0.3%
  • Los Angeles: 0.2%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported on new data since May. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from August 28, 2023 we see that there are two markets that have declined (San Francisco and New York, -0.63% and -1.51% respectively). All other CS-10 markets are up, with Chicago and Denver leading the pack up over 2% since May.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.972.

As of August 28, 2023, the US housing market is up 5.9% since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in May.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for June

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for the last ~year for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our June estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs May Prediction Performance

  • Directionally consistent in 8/10 markets
  • Within 1% in 7/10 markets
  • Within 15 basis points in 3/10 markets
  • Overall error 0.9% (+7 basis points MoM)

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