May 28, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for March

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with March numbers on May 30th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal increases in all markets but one San Francisco with a 1.3% contraction.
  • Real estate prices in 7 markets registered strong growth with San Diego posting a 4% increase, followed by Denver at 2.6%, Boston at 2.0%, and Washington DC at 1.7%.
  • Two markets, Chicago and Las Vegas remain stable. Chicago had a moderate growth of 0.6% while Las Vegas basically remains the same with a marginal increase of 0.02%.
  • Case Shiller is starting to capture an uptick across markets evident in our Parcl Labs Price Feed that have price increases in all markets ranging from 3 to 14 percent. Or in other words while Case Shiller still shows declining prices in some markets our data suggests that all markets have registered growth since the last edition of the Case-Shiller.
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, May 30 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with March numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for March (scheduled to be reported on May 30th). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

March Case Shiller Market Highlights

Rising March Markets

  • San Diego real estate prices up 4%.
  • Denver real estate prices up 2.6%
  • Boston real estate prices up 2.0%
  • Washington DC real estate prices up 1.7%

Stable March Markets

  • Los Angeles real estate prices up 0.6%
  • Las Vegas real estate prices up 0.02%

Declining March Markets

  • San Fransisco real estate prices down 1.3%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported on new data since February. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from May 26, 2023 we see that all CS-10 metro areas are up between ~3-14% since January. Our data suggest that CS10 markets are on the rise and volatility in prices is also on the rise across all the markets, in particular Denver and San Francisco.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for March

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our March estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs February Prediction Performance

  • Within 20 basis points in 3/10 markets
  • Within 5 basis points in LA
  • Directionally consistent in 6/10 markets
  • Overall error: 0.87%
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