Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for March 2024

May 23, 2024
min read
Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for March 2024

March Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with March numbers on May 28th.
  • March 2024 is expected to exhibit predominantly positive market performance across Case-Shiller markets.
    • We anticipate most markets to demonstrate a positive trajectory, with Denver and Boston leading the way, each appreciating by 2.0%. They are followed by New York and Miami, each growing by 1.5%, and Chicago with an increase of 1.8%. Los Angeles, Washington, DC, and San Diego are also expected to see positive growth, with increases of 1.1%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively. Las Vegas is expected to have a modest increase of 0.1%.
    • However, a decline is anticipated in San Francisco, which is expected to decrease by 0.7% in its March Case-Shiller reading.
  • Despite a static Case-Shiller Index since February 2024, the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of May 2024 highlights increases in all ten markets, with notable appreciation in San Francisco (19.36%), Boston (10.51%), Chicago (8.60%), and Washington, DC (8.56%).
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market up 6.4% since the last CS reading in February.
  • In a fast-moving market, relying on Case-Shiller's updates—which lag by over two months—can be costly. Sign up today for access to real-time real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, May 28th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with March numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for March. This report analyzes the single-family home market by focusing on repeated sales price trends and dynamics.

March Case Shiller Market Highlights

March 2024 Positive Markets

  • Denver (2.0%)
  • Boston (2.0%)
  • Chicago (1.8%)
  • New York (1.5%)
  • Miami (1.5%)
  • Los Angeles (1.1%)
  • Washington, DC (1.0%)
  • San Diego (0.9%)
  • Las Vegas (0.1%)

March 2024 Declining Markets

  • San Francisco (-0.7%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index's latest figures, static since February 2024, are markedly different from the live market changes captured by the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of May 2024. This month, our Parcl Labs Price Feed data indicates growth across all markets, with ten out of ten markets showing an increase in prices.

The most dramatic increase was in San Francisco, soaring to a 19.36% rise, which is a significant lead ahead of the other markets. Boston also saw a substantial increase, with values going up by 10.51%. Other markets followed suit, with Chicago, Washington, DC, and Los Angeles posting robust gains of 8.60%, 8.56%, and 6.44% respectively. Moderate growth was recorded in San Diego, Las Vegas, and New York, with rises of 5.18%, 4.23%, and 3.25%. Miami's market showed a modest upturn at 2.45%, and Denver experienced the least growth, though still positive, at 1.95%.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market is up 6.4 percent since the last CS reading in February.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for March

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2024 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our March estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs February Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our February predictions:

  • 5/10 markets within 1%
  • Directionally consistent in 6/10 markets
  • Overall error: 120 basis points (up 40 basis points month over month)
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