July 24, 2023

10 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for May

May Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with May numbers on July 25th.
  • We anticipate the Case-Shiller reading for the month to reveal increases in 8/10 markets, with Boston and Los Angeles being the exceptions, showing decreases of -0.8% and -1.4% respectively.
  • San Diego is expected to lead with a 1.6% increase, followed by Denver at 1.4%, Washington, D.C. at 1.3%, San Francisco with a 1.1% rise, and Las Vegas, Miami, and New York, each expecting a solid 1% increase.
  • The Case-Shiller index reflects the upticks across various markets, something our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has been documenting for months. Since the last Case-Shiller update in April 2023, our Parcl Labs Price Feed has shown increases in all markets, with percentages ranging from a low of 2.79% (Miami) to a high of 10.66% (Chicago).
  • In a dynamic market, relying on Case-Shiller updates with a 2+ month lag can be detrimental; stay ahead of the curve by accessing real-time real estate prices for 100+ markets through Parcl Labs API. Register here for a free account today.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, July 25 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with May numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for April (scheduled to be reported on July 25). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

May Case Shiller Market Highlights

Rising May Markets

  • San Diego: 1.6%
  • Denver: 1.4%
  • Washington, D.C.: 1.3%
  • San Francisco: 1.1%
  • New York: 1%
  • Las Vegas: 1%
  • Miami: 1%
  • Chicago: 0.5%

Declining May Markets

  • Los Angeles: -1.4%
  • Boston: -0.8%

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t reported on new data since April. A lot has happened since then. Looking at data from July 21, 2023 we see that all CS-10 metro areas are up between 2.79 to 10.66 percent since the last Case Shiller report (April 2023).

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for May

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our May estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs April Prediction Performance

  • Directionally consistent in 9/10 markets
  • 4/10 markets within 50 basis points
  • 7/10 markets within ~1%
  • Overall error 0.83%% (-20 basis points MoM)
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