January 24, 2024

5 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for November, 2023

November Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with November numbers on January 30th.
  • Overall November Market Performance: In our November 2023 reading, we anticipate volatility in the Case Shiller numbers, with 9 of 10 markets flat or down. San Francisco is the only exception, up 2.7% MoM
  • Biggest Decliners: We expect Denver, Miami, and Chicago to lead the decliners down 1%, 0.4% and 0.4% respectively
  • Biggest Winner: We anticipate San Francisco to lead this month +2.7%
  • Stable Performers: Boston, San Diego, Las Vegas, Washington, DC, Los Angeles and New York are expected to be nearly flat on MoM movement
  • Since the October 2023 Case-Shiller update, our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has tracked pronounced market shifts this fall and winter. 9 of 10 markets are flat/down. San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego are -6.6%, -2.5% and -2.4% declines
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market down 50 basis points since October.
  • In a dynamic market, waiting on Case-Shiller's 2+ month delayed updates can prove costly. Reach out to our team now for immediate access to current real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, January 30th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with November numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for November. This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

November Case Shiller Market Highlights

November 2023 Positive Markets

  • San Francisco (2.7%)
  • New York (0.3%)

November 2023 Stable Markets

  • Los Angeles (0.1%)
  • Washington, DC (0.1%)
  • Las Vegas (0%)
  • San Diego (0%)

November 2023 Declining Markets

  • Denver (-1%)
  • Miami (-0.4%)
  • Chicago (-0.4%)
  • Boston (-0.2%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t updated its data since October. Much has transpired since then. Reviewing the data from January 24, 2024, reveals that seven markets have experienced a decline (San Francisco -6.6%, Los Angeles -2.5%, San Diego -2.4%, Las Vegas -1.2%, New York -1%, Boston -0.9%, Chicago -0.5%). All other CS-10 markets have shown stability or slight growth, with Washington, DC leading at +1%.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

As of January 24, the US housing market has declined 50 basis points since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in October.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for November

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our November estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs October Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our October predictions:

  • Within 50 basis points in 3 of 10 markets
  • Within 1% in 8 of 10 markets
  • Directionally consistent in 6/10 markets
  • Overall error less than 1%
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