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Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for October

The need for real-time residential real estate data has never been greater.

Executive Summary

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with October numbers on Tuesday, December 27th.
  • Parcl Labs forecasted October updates based on the CS10 methodology and we expect continued price declines across all 10 CS markets.
  • The most dramatic month over month (MoM) declines are observed in regions such as Denver, Washington DC, and Las Vegas registering declines of 2.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively.
  • New York and LA have the most month over month stability, with price declines of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively
  • Real estate prices are increasingly volatile and dynamic based on local market factors. You deserve timely, accurate, and precise insights to inform your real estate decisions. Parcl Labs provides data and analysis you can trust — our September predictions were within 20 basis points for 3 of 10 markets and 80 basis points for 6 of 10 markets.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, December 27 at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with October numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for October (scheduled to be reported on December 27th). This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile periods real estate has ever experienced.

October Case Shiller Market Highlights

  • Every CS-10 market will witness price decreases for October. 7 out of 10 markets will decline over 1%.
  • The Denver market will record the greatest percent price decrease, down -2.1% since September.
  • Washington DC and Las Vegas will record nearly 2% decreases, down -1.9% and -1.8% respectively.
  • New York and Chicago will remain relatively resilient to price declines. Chicago observed a -.6% decrease in September — we predict it will record -.7% decline in October. Similarly, New York was down -.7% in September — our analysis reveals prices will be almost flat in October (-.2%)

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for October

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2022 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our October estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller Indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs September Prediction Performance

  • Parcl Labs September predictions were within 80 basis points for 6 out of 10 markets.
  • For 3 out of 10 markets, our predictions were within 20 basis points.
  • Our Los Angeles market prediction was near perfect — we predicted PPSQF at 397.6, the actual was 397.7.

Jason Lewris

Co-Founder

Jason leads the data team at Parcl Labs. Jason brings his experience from Microsoft and Deloitte where he worked on international data standardization and machine learning problems at scale.