December 22, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for October, 2023

October Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with October numbers on December 26th.
  • Overall October Market Performance: In October 2023, we anticipate volatility in the Case Shiller numbers, with 7 of the markets even or down MoM and the remainder with subtle home price appreciation with the exception of San Diego +1.6%
  • Biggest Decliners: We expect Denver and Washington, DC to lead the biggest MoM decliners at -1.5% and -1.3% respectively, followed closely by San Francisco (-1%) and Las Vegas (-1%)
  • Modest Gains: San Diego and Los Angeles are the only markets with clear up signals at 1.6% and 0.8% respectively
  • Stable Performers: Boston and New York remained stable MoM
  • Since the September 2023 Case-Shiller update, our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has tracked pronounced market shifts this fall. Half of markets are down since September. Denver and Washington, DC lead the pack at -12.39% and -6%. New York is showing some gains since September of 2.58%
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market remaining flat since September, the last time the CS National Home Price Index was updated.
  • In a dynamic market, waiting on Case-Shiller's 2+ month delayed updates can prove costly. Reach out to our team now for immediate access to current real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, December 26th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with September numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for October. This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

October Case Shiller Market Highlights

October 2023 Positive Markets

  • San Diego (1.6%)
  • Los Angeles (0.8%)

October 2023 Stable Markets

  • Boston (0.1%)
  • New York (0%)

October 2023 Declining Markets

  • Denver (-1.5%)
  • Washington, DC (-1.3%)
  • San Francisco (-1%)
  • Las Vegas (-1%)
  • Chicago (-0.6%)
  • Miami (-0.4%)

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t updated its data since September. Much has transpired since then. Reviewing the data from December 21, 2023, reveals that five markets have experienced a decline (Denver -12.39%, Washington, DC -6%, Chicago -3.35%, Boston -2.1%, San Diego -0.85%). All other CS-10 markets have shown stability or slight growth, with New York leading at +2.58%.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

As of December 21, the US housing market is flat since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in September.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for October

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our October estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs September Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our September predictions:

  • Within ~10 basis points in 4/10 markets
  • Within 1 percent in 8/10 markets
  • Directionally consistent in 7/10 markets
  • Overall error of 50 basis points

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