November 22, 2023

8 min read

Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for September

September Results

  • The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with September numbers on November 28th.
  • Overall August Market Performance: In September 2023, we anticipate volatility in the Case Shiller numbers, with half of the markets even or down MoM and the remainder with subtle home price appreciation
  • Biggest Decliners: We expect Denver and San Francisco to be tied as the biggest MoM decliners at -1.3%, followed closely by Chicago (-1.2%) and Washington, DC (-0.8%)
  • Modest Gains: Moderate gains in New York (+0.5%), Miami (+0.5%), Los Angeles (+0.3%), Las Vegas (+0.3%), and Boston (+0.2%)
  • Stable Performers: San Diego stands out as the only markets that showed little to no price changes in September, remaining consistent with their August figures.
  • Since the August 2023 Case-Shiller update, our real-time Parcl Labs Price Feed has tracked pronounced market shifts this fall. Half of the markets tracked are down since the last reading. Denver leads (+6%) followed closely by New York (+5.4%). Washington, DC and Boston have declined the most at -3.6% and -3% respectively
  • Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market increasing 1.9% since August, the last time the CS National Home Price Index was updated.
  • In a dynamic market, waiting on Case-Shiller's 2+ month delayed updates can prove costly. Reach out to our team now for immediate access to current real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, November 28th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with September numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for September. This report gives us insight into how markets are evolving for single family, repeated sales homes that fall outside the definition of home flipping (turnover time of less than 6 months) during what continues to be one of the most volatile and uncertain periods American real estate has ever experienced.

September 2023 Positive Markets

  • New York: 0.5%
  • Miami: 0.5%
  • Los Angeles: 0.3%
  • Las Vegas: 0.3%
  • Boston: 0.2%

September 2023 Stable Markets

  • San Diego: 0.0%

September 2023 Declining Markets

  • Denver (-1.3%)
  • San Francisco (-1.3%)
  • Chicago (-1.2%)
  • Washington, DC (-0.8%)

The Case Shiller Index hasn’t updated its data since August. Much has transpired since then. Reviewing the data from November 22, 2023, reveals that five markets have experienced a decline (Washington, DC -3.56%, Boston -2.96%, Chicago -1.29%, San Diego -0.96%). All other CS-10 markets have shown growth, with Denver leading at an impressive increase of over 6% since August.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

As of November 22nd, the US housing market is up 1.9% since the last time the Case Shiller National Home Price Index updated in August.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for September

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2023 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our September estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs August Prediction Performance

  • Within 50 basis points in 5/10 markets
  • Directionally consistent in 7/10 markets
  • Within 6 basis points in 2 markets

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