In May, Parcl Labs initiated ratings coverage across 40 national real estate markets assigning a rating of bullish, bearish or neutral for each market based on 1 year expected price return. The distribution of ratings are fairly balanced across our coverage with 17 bullish ratings, 11 neutral ratings and 12 bearish ratings. Note that generally speaking across the country there is a large supply overhang given price, interest rate, and seasonality dynamics - however, there are markets that we expect to outperform despite uncertain market conditions. In this note we showcase the top 5 most bullish markets in terms of expected 1 year price return. Within each segment we also highlight key buy-box opportunities where Gross Yields are >7%, which we view as an attractive risk adjusted return.

Buffalo, NY

Base case (1 year return): 9.3%

Bull case: 18.1%

Bear case: 1.2%

Buffalo's strong 8.74% YoY price growth shows extraordinary resilience, pushing the market near its recent September peak despite an 8.87% seasonal dip. This underlying price expansion endures even as key metrics like absorption rates and supply-demand balance are worsening. Buffalo's housing market is currently navigating a period of recalibration, with the absorption rate adjusting to 0.358 in April 2025 from 1.006 in March, a shift often seen with seasonal changes in buyer focus and increased inventory. While the year-over-year volume of new listings has moderated by 10.4% to 1,526 properties, a trend also seen nationally (-6.3%), this occurs in a context where Buffalo sellers are successfully finding their price points: price cuts have notably decreased from 21.95% to 14% of listings year-over-year. This contrasts with the national rise in price reductions and suggests sellers are confidently meeting current demand, fostering a path to sustained market equilibrium and continued price growth.

Buy-Box Highlights:

Classic Family Residences: Gross Yield: 10% | Avg. List Price: $270K | Monthly Rent: $2.3K | Active Listings: 408

Mid-Century Starter Homes: Gross Yield: 9% | Avg. List Price: $220K | Monthly Rent: $1.7K | Active Listings: 788

Premium Modern Estates: Gross Yield: 8.2% | Avg. List Price: $580K | Monthly Rent: $4K | Active Listings: 345

Contemporary Suburban Residences: Gross Yield: 7.5% | Avg. List Price: $360K | Monthly Rent: $2.3K | Active Listings: 391

New York, NY

Base case (1 year return): 8.3%

Bull case: 13.1%

Bear case: 3.8%

New York's real estate market continues to demonstrate exceptional strength with price growth significantly outpacing national averages. Current price per square foot stands at $423.13, reflecting a 7.52% year-over-year increase compared to just 0.4% nationally. Early 2025 metrics indicate accelerating momentum across key indicators, with sustained price growth despite emerging inventory-demand imbalances. New York's price growth since COVID stands at 65.6%, exceeding the national rate of 47.77%. This 17.83 percentage point difference demonstrates the market's resilience and its status as a destination for both domestic and international investment capital. The sustained post-pandemic appreciation trajectory reflects fundamental strength in the New York housing ecosystem despite early 2020 predictions of urban exodus. This long-term appreciation provides investors with equity buffers against potential near-term market adjustments.

New York's market is experiencing a 5.4% year-over-year increase in new listings, reaching a current volume of 16,736 properties entering the market. This growth stands in direct contrast to the national trend, where new listings have contracted by 6.3% over the same period. The divergent pattern indicates sellers in the New York market are responding to price appreciation by bringing more inventory to market, creating a healthier flow of available properties compared to many supply-constrained markets nationwide.

The share of properties experiencing price cuts has increased to 19.75%, nearly doubling from 10.5% in January 2025. Despite this substantial increase, New York's price-cut frequency remains well below the national average of 34%. This differential suggests sellers in the New York market maintain relatively stronger pricing power than counterparts in other regions, though the upward trend in discounting activity signals eroding seller leverage.

Buy-Box Highlights:

Contemporary Spacious Residences: Gross Yield: 8.1% | Avg. List Price: $999K | Monthly Rent: $6.7K | Active Listings: 3,059

Modern Modest Single Family Homes: Gross Yield: 7.4% | Avg. List Price: $553K | Monthly Rent: $3.4K | Active Listings: 2,471

San Jose, CA

Base case (1 year return): 7.7%

Bull case: 13.2%

Bear case: 2.5%

In San Jose, we project home prices to rise to ($1015.5/sq ft, +7.7 %) over the next 12 months. Despite a 2.9% peak-to-current decline and a 0.914 supply-demand gap, the forecast anticipates a recovery. Supply and inventory conditions are evolving rapidly; if current trends persist, we will revisit this forecast. The luxury segment is a standout as it is exhibiting a pronounced supply-demand imbalance across all property types. Available inventory contracted 16.3% year-over-year while demand surged 54.9% in January 2025. This divergence creates a supply-demand gap of -0.713, indicating significantly more demand than available inventory. We expect this shortage of luxury properties to continue to support our base case forecast.

Buy-Box Highlights: No investment opportunities are yielding great than 4%. As such, we do not recommend investing in this market. Visit App.Parcl.co for synthetic deal flow in California

Milwaukee

Base case (1 year return): 7.7%

Bull case: 34.7%

Bear case: -14%

Milwaukee maintains metro-level price resilience with 3.59% YoY growth against 0.4% nationally, despite weakening fundamentals. That said the market does show some softening as supply-demand dynamics reveal growing buyer leverage with a 7.2% gap. Milwaukee's price cut rate of 18.95% remains well below the national 34%, yet price-adjustment activity has accelerated significantly faster at 30.2% YoY versus 17.4% nationally. Note that price returns in Milwaukee have been more volatile versus our broader coverage universe and as such the potential outcome dispersion is higher (i.e. bull/bear cases).

Buy-Box Highlights:

Contemporary Suburban Properties: Gross Yield: 7.1% | Avg. List Price: $500K | Monthly Rent: $3K | Active Listings: 672

Columbus

Base case (1 year return): 5.9%

Bull case: 11.9%

Bear case: 0.1%

Columbus real estate maintains a strong growth trajectory despite recent price adjustments. The market commands a current price per square foot of $199.76 with year-over-year growth of 3.05%, outpacing the national average of 0.4%. This divergence demonstrates Columbus' relative strength even as the market experiences a modest 0.45% correction from its April 2025 peak value of $200.67.

Since COVID-19 began, property values have appreciated 60.28%, exceeding the national benchmark of 47.77%. This 12.51 percentage point outperformance illustrates Columbus' emergence as a growth leader among midwestern markets. The minor pullback from peak values indicates price stabilization rather than structural reversal, creating tactical buying opportunities while maintaining the fundamental strength that has characterized Columbus' post-pandemic performance.

New listing activity has contracted sharply, with rolling new listings at 3,345 as of May 12, 2025, representing a 15% year-over-year decline versus the national reduction of 6.3%. This inventory constraint creates structural support for pricing despite other moderating indicators. Price reduction activity has accelerated, with 31.05% of active listings featuring price cuts, reflecting a 38.6% year-over-year increase that outpaces the national trend of 17.4%. However, the April 2025 absorption rate stands at 0.679, indicating buyers are purchasing approximately 67.9% of available inventory monthly. While this represents a retreat to late 2023 levels, Columbus significantly outperforms the national absorption rate of 0.423, maintaining sufficient demand to prevent extensive price corrections.

Buy-Box Highlights:

Mid-Century Core Residences: Gross Yield: 8.2% | Avg. List Price: $247.5K | Monthly Rent: $1.7K | Active Listings: 1,549

Modern Family Townhomes: Gross Yield: 7.2% | Avg. List Price: $375K | Monthly Rent: $2.3K | Active Listings: 1,275